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 Newsletter / December 2008 |
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By Jim Stavis When I was young, I grew up listening to Cat Stevens. One of my favorite songs was “Oh Baby, It’s a Wild World.” Unfortunately, it is not one of my favorite tunes right now. 2008 was wild indeed—not what anyone had expected. It makes you wonder what 2009 will yield. The pundits, who always seem to be wrong, have the recession (are we calling it that yet?) as going into the first quarter and beyond. How deep and long it will last is anyone’s guess. The one thing we do know is it will take business acumen and fortitude for companies to navigate their way through this period. It is not for the faint of heart. The steel industry is somewhat cautious about predicting the future because of decades of unpredictability. Cycles of good times are invariably followed by periods of bad times. So as a result, we know that a good run at the table is never something you can count on for very long. Perhaps it is a good thing that the industry runs scared. It can be a powerful survival instinct. But it is also a powerful response to an uncertain marketplace that forces us to embrace the unpredictability. The challenge of it all is in knowing how to plan for the unknown; how to build an organization based on speculation and uncertainty. We sometimes find ourselves having conversations about scaling back following by discussions of ramping up. It is a business conundrum. Recently, we were asked by our bank to provide a business forecast for 2009. In the current environment, this can be tricky stuff. I asked them if a year ago they could have predicted the fortunes of Lehman Brothers, AIG or CitiBank. Sure, we can look at business trends—housing will be soft and anything “green” will be strong. But looking beyond that is sketchy at best. Now with the global impact made by China and India, the entire business picture is muddy. Will America be able to rise to the challenge? Let’s hope so for the country’s sake. And what about the Obama effect? How successful will our new president be in calming consumer concerns, creating jobs, restoring confidence in our financial markets and bringing some direction back to America? This in itself will be a daunting task. And as far as banks are concerned, when are they going to stop acting like turtles and get back to lending money again? We have many customer projects that have been stopped in their tracks due to funding challenges and businesses that have had their lines of credit frozen. Banks have the ability to affect change, but instead, they are contributing to the shaken economy. Much of what has transpired over the course of this past year was foreseen. With the rising cost of energy, the unregulated mortgage industry and government monetary policies, the signs of a collapse were there. But hindsight is always 20/20. For 2009 and beyond, we need leadership and vision. We need a return to American values. There is much work that lies ahead and we look forward to the journey. HAPPY NEW YEAR! We at Paragon Steel wish you and your family a joyous holiday and safe New Year. We also hope for peace and prosperity in the coming year. Plus, a little pick-up in business wouldn’t hurt either. NEW YEAR’S QUOTES |
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 "Youth is when you're allowed to stay up late on New Year's Eve. Old age is when you're forced to." –Bill Vaughn |
 "Be always at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let each New Year find you a better person." –Benjamin Franklin |
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